Last week’s Nor’easter in Massachusetts stunned the Democratic party and created widespread panic. One likely consequence is that healthcare reform – Barack Obama’s signature initiative – will go down to defeat. Some would say reform of some sort is decades overdue. But not all Americans are convinced the effort must be abandoned.
Democrats could press on if they chose. The loss of their super-majority in the Senate is not decisive, after all. The party still controls the House of Representatives. If the House simply passed the bill which the Senate has already approved, the measure for mandating individual health insurance could go directly to President Obama’s desk.
But many Democrats in the House do not like the Senate bill and Liberals find it too timid. Moderates in swing districts, worried about November’s midterm elections fear it will lose them votes. Democrats aren’t simply sweeping their health plans under the rug; out of lack of conviction, they are choosing to surrender.
Democrats are looking at other options now, but options are tough to come by. Knowing full well these are likely to yield little or nothing of meaningful reform, aside from a bit more regulation, the bill is killed. You cannot guarantee availability of insurance coverage, for example, without an individual mandate to buy insurance: this would cause premiums to soar. Then, in turn, such a mandate requires subsidies. Once you start to pick apart the Senate bill, it unravels completely.
The president and most Democrats are simply tired and seem ready to let it all go away like a bad dream…If only we could get some sleep.
In the coming days, expect the Democrats to show they are listening to voters. It would be wrong to pretend that the Massachusetts election didn’t happen, of course. But popular opposition to healthcare reform is easily misinterpreted. It will be a very tight rope they will walk with the American public. But it may help their stance with voters to reassure their constituents that affordable health insurance is still available on the open market.
Though they ended up with a huge and expensive proposal, President Obama and his Democratic allies made a remarkable hash of getting there. The process was gruesome and the public support was non-existent. Voters have reason to be confused and fearful, and this is driving the polls. But there is no solid opposition to change. President Obama, after all, was elected largely on of comprehensive healthcare reform.
Sadly, it now looks too late for the president to exercise the leadership that was missing last year – in guiding the effort, in uniting his own party around a plan, and above all in assuring the public that it all made sense. No matter where you side on healthcare reform or the political party you affiliate with most, this whole mess gave everyone undeniable and decisive double-take on the Obama administration.